Tradewinds flashback.-- Dr Crime October 2014

Dear Dr. Crime: Isn’t our State dumb to let people carry guns around in their pockets? If
we just outlaw guns we would have less crime, right? Frightened Teacher

Dear Frightened Teacher:
Even in the angry, upset world of today I know of few issues that generate more emotion
than gun control. A recent review of the research on the effects of gun control laws and
crime rates seemed to offer conclusions based not on emotion but on science. Lott reviewed
the research and found a beneficial effect of right-to-carry laws. In a law journal he offered
the following finding: “Using cross sectional time series data for U.S. counties from 1977
to 1992, we find that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deters violent crimes,
without increasing accidental deaths. If those states without right to carry concealed gun
provisions had adopted them in 1992, county and state level data indicate that approximately
1,500 murders would have been avoided yearly. Similarly, we predict that rapes would have
declined by over 4,000, robbery by over 11,000, and aggravated assaults by over 60,000. We
also find criminals substituting into property crimes involving stealth, where the probability
of contact between the criminal and the victim is minimal…. The estimated annual gain from
all remaining states adopting these laws was at least $5.74 billion in 1992.” Yet, the National
Research Council recently reviewed the data linking firearms and violence (different
from Lott’s study) and concluded the data in the very convoluted issue that involves so many
factors cannot produce an answer. They called for more research on violence and guns. I
believe we truly need extensive study of the causes of violence as well as right-to-carry laws
guide our policy. And of course there is the matter of what our US Constitutions says.